Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Dubai - Ghost town in the making?

Dubai represents the modern UAE. It is the most liberal and "progressive" of the Arab Emirates; semi-secular comes to mind.

With a visibly fininte (less than 10 years if I'm not wrong) supply of oil, Dubai's rulers decided to fashion a modern city in the desert in order to reduce dependence on oil. A transition to entertainment, finance (ambitions were to become a financial centre straddling Europe and Asia) and services. Ample, easy money saw an influx of foreign "talent" (0% tax was also a draw), and a massive number of entertainment, housing, and commercial developments. The scale of construction was staggering - at the height of the boom, it was estimated that almost 25% of the world's construction cranes were operating out of Dubai.

Fast forward to post-crisis Dubai. The problem with Dubai is that it does not have a real economy to support all the development that is going on. The "build it and they will come" philosophy does not always work. Following the crisis, many foreigners have left (indigneous population is something like 200,000 - hardly enough to sustain everything that has been built). There is a major glut of housing, to be worsened as more supply comes onstream in the coming year. Many completed developments have sub-par finishing and build quality, while a lot of projects under construction are likely to be halted as developers struggle to remain solvent. If completed, they are likely to remain empty.

Thats a lot of energy, resources, cement, etc etc pumped into what may potentially be a ghost town in the making. I am definitely going back in 10 years to see what has become of the city.

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